The Municipal Minute
Innisfil’s Town Council meeting on Wednesday, June 3, 2026, provided a sobering look into the town’s future. The Hemson Long-Range Financial Plan Report states on page 2 that the Town’s total 20-year capital needs are projected at about $2.3 billion.
Craig Binning and Christopher Balette of Hemson Consulting presented their Long-Range Financial Plan, which indicated that Innisfil is in a strong fiscal position, but financial pressures, including maintaining infrastructure, accommodating growth, and replacing aging assets, could require significant new revenue sources, strategic borrowing, and difficult decisions over the next two decades.
In moving forward, residents (whose taxes are responsible for 90 per cent of the municipal tax base, while non-residential taxes account for the final 10 per cent) are forecasted to pay higher taxes, in addition to the Town’s need to rely on other revenue sources, which may include development charges, debt financing, grants, and the implementation of stormwater fees.
Two scenarios were presented in the presentation:
- Base Case (assumes $318.9 million in tax-funded debt)*
- Mitigation Scenario, which defers capital needs beyond the 5 and 10-year periods (assumes $302.1 million in tax-funded debt)*
*Both scenarios maintain the 1% capital levy.
Both models project higher taxes (equating to more revenue for the Town), continued OLG payments, and the Orbit running on schedule. (The Town lacks control over the latter two sources.)
Jennifer Gibson, CFO/Director of Corporate Services and Mayor Lynn Dollin reminded community members that the recommendations have not been adopted by the Town, and the report serves as a tool for this and future council members. The council received the report but did not approve a spending plan.
Budgetary conversations, model refinement, and future council decisions will continue. The next regularly scheduled Council meeting is on June 24.
The Community Connection
What would higher taxes mean for you?
For illustration purposes, a homeowner with a property assessed at $750,000 would currently pay approximately $9,297 annually in property taxes using Innisfil’s 2026 residential tax rate of 1.239628%.
- 1% increase to the tax bill = about $93/year*
- 5% increase to the tax bill = about $465/year*
- 7% increase to the tax bill = about $651/year*
*Actual tax bills depend on assessment values, tax ratios, and future council decisions.
Civic Decoder
- What is a source of “good debt” related to a municipality?
Answer: My understanding is that debt incurred to spread the cost of long-term projects (e.g., roads, building infrastructure, water systems, transit, etc.) across generations of people who will enjoy them is considered “good.”
- What does it mean when Council “defers” a matter?
Answer: It means that they have postponed making a decision (sometimes, staff will be asked to provide more information on a particular topic so Town Council can better understand the matter and make an educated decision on behalf of constituents).
- Why would this model ignore inflation?
Answer: On page 4 of the Town’s Staff Report DSR-081-26, Long Range Financial Plan, it’s noted that “The analysis is prepared in constant 2026 dollars, meaning inflation has been excluded from the forecast to allow for clearer analysis of growth-related financial impacts, service pressures and policy analysis.”
Since inflation fluctuates, it would be very difficult to confidently model financial projections over a twenty-year period.
Questions Worth Asking
Coun. Alex Waters noted that InnServices just increased rates by 7%. “It looks like that might be the case for several years to come,” he said. “It looks like 7% is the number that everyone chooses to increase rates by. It’s not a pretty picture, but knowing what may happen allows us the opportunity to prepare for it.”
As residents are being hit by rate increases from various sources, will the Town lobby for grants from the federal and provincial governments? How much help can be expected?
Council in Their Own Words
Coun. Grace Constantine: “With inflation and cost of living top of mind for everyone right now, how does this long-term framework actively protect our current taxpayers from facing sudden, unpredictable tax spikes over the next few years?”
Response: The consultants pointed to the Mitigation Scenario, which defers some capital spending ($150-$160 million) beyond the five- and 10-year forecast periods. They suggested that strategically timing projects and using debt financing where appropriate could help smooth tax impacts over time.
Watch the discussion.
Coun. Kevin Eisses believes that the debt that is being proposed is largely “good” debt; the Town has partners (e.g., the provincial and federal governments) that will likely help on the cost side; and he agrees with Karen Brown that we should have a mitigation strategy that includes a delayed timeline regarding the Orbit.
He also said:
“I don’t like, on the revenue side, where it’s suggested that we can have a stormwater tax… Taxing rain for people just makes everybody mad. I would stay away from those types of revenue scenarios.”
Watch Coun. Eisses’ comment here.
Coun. Alex Waters asked if raising the capital levy from one per cent to 1.5% over the next four years would make a meaningful difference, since the Town spent the levy during COVID. The consultants confirmed that the debt financing needs may change in this scenario (as the Town would have more money upfront), but it won’t change the cost-side scenario.
Waters also said:
“Our current structure for taxes is 90 per cent residential, 10 per cent corporate… (If) we want to… decrease the residential part to 80 per cent and (increase the corporate to) 20 per cent with the new development of Innisfil Heights, would that have any impact on the tax increases for residents?”
Response: It doesn’t change the tax ratios, but the model captures “the anticipated development that will occur in Innisfil Heights and other non-residential components, including the non-residential elements proposed through the Orbit plan.”
Watch Coun. Waters’ comment here.
Mayor Lynn Dollin said that all municipalities in Ontario are in the same position, if not worse.
“This is not a ‘Made in Innisfil’ issue; this is a ‘Made in Ontario’ issue. Property taxes in Ontario are the highest in Canada, and that is because municipalities are given the responsibility to provide more services in Ontario than any other… municipalities in other provinces provide.” (Affordable housing, for example.)
She also explained that only 9 cents of every tax dollar (not just property taxes, all taxes) paid by residents in Ontario goes to the municipalities; the rest goes to the provincial and federal governments. “This is part of the reason we are where we are,” Dollin said.
Given Innisfil’s geographical size and “widespread” nature, the community requires infrastructure that requires more upkeep than a geographically smaller municipality (a smaller municipality may require one fire station, but Innisfil is talking about building its sixth).
Watch Mayor Dollin’s comments here.
What to Watch
Residents can study the resources provided on the Town’s website, participate in future council meetings (the next regularly scheduled meeting is on June 24, 2026), speak to elected officials about what’s next (find out which ward you live in by visiting the Town’s Wards map. You can search for your address by expanding the menu at the top right-hand corner), and run for municipal office.
The Civic Lens
How does the Long-Range Financial Report impact democracy in Innisfil?
This is a tool that staff are going to rely on for many years, as staff are being trained to change variables in the model, so scenarios can be tested and assumptions can be updated over time as a complement to the annual capital budgeting process.
The question is: How do we define success as a municipality moving forward?
How do we use debt strategically, honour the financial welfare of residents, attract new residents and businesses who can help fund the future of Innisfil, while weathering obstacles?
As the municipal election approaches on October 26, which candidates do you want representing you in Council Chambers as the time horizons defined in the Long-Term Financial Plan shorten?
Remember: Local decisions shape daily life.
Citizen Spotlight
📣 Shout-out to Ward 5 resident Karen Brown, who not only spoke at the Council meeting here but, according to the Unofficial List of Candidates, is running for office.
In my opinion, she did a wonderful job summarizing some of the main concerns that fellow residents would have, and she urged Council to consider a scenario where the Orbit is delayed, after she warned against pinning the town’s financial future on projects outside of the Town’s control.
She asked Council to exercise caution and establish guardrails now, so future Council members are provided a framework rather than a warning.
Whether you agree with her comments or not, thanks for speaking up, Karen Brown!
Want to verify something in this article? Be my guest!
All source documents referenced in this article are linked below.
- Long Range Financial Plan Staff Report (DSR-081-26)
- Hemson Long-Range Financial Plan Report
- Hemson Council Presentation
- June 3, 2026 Town Council Meeting Recording
- Bank of Canada Monetary Policy Report (April 2026)
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© 2026 Amber Green (AmberGreen.ca). All rights reserved.
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